Will Calif. Voters Turn out for Proposition 98?

Voters in California will go to the polls today to decide a number of legislative primaries, as well as several statewide ballot initiatives and a few local measures.

Voter turnout is expected to be very low. The Presidential primaries in California polled in February. Without them, energy and attention dissipate.

Proposition 98, a statewide measure that would gradually phase rent control in all of the states mobile home parks (as well as in any other apartment or rental unit), could swing heavily depending upon which cross-section of the public decides to vote.

Although polling suggests that Proposition 98 is lagging its sister measure, Proposition 99, it is possible that this is the kind of election that could favor an initiative like 98. That is because its just the kind of issue that draws strong support from some (property owners, libertarians, farmers) while perhaps eliciting only casual concern among the majority. And while Proposition 98 is not appealing to large constituentcies such as women or renters, its likely that this is not the election that draws out everyone.

Indeed, the lowest turnout rate in California was in June 2006 (less than 34 percent), and this election may exceed that. Its even possible that mail-in votes will exceed election day votes.

Other local measures might also matter. San Francisco, which has a large liberal base and a lot of renters, also has two local measures that would affect development (Prop G and Prop F.) These are high-profile issues with lots of linkage to the Mayor.

Orinda has a proposal for higher taxes on libraries. That might bring out a few Republicans and property rights groups that might also then vote for 98.

The biggest block of voters with a concern in this issue, of course, are residents in mobile home parks. Hundreds of thousands of people live in rent control in California mobile home parks. This is a tough group to organize because it includes many people on the margins of civic institutions.

Then again, it also includes some notoriously regular voters (parents, seniors).

When polls close this evening, a significant shift in affordable housing in California may occur. If 98 passes, rent control will fade away.  Some could argue that since no new rent control provisions have been passed in a decade, that reflects a new political will.

But other community development practitioners outside of manufactured housing programs should also be weary. The controls in 98 could also threaten the ability of any local government to enforce a set aside for new affordable housing in a new development.